✅ ИТОГОВЫЙ ОБЗОР ФИНАНСОВЫХ РЫНКОВ ОТ TVT (18.06.2021)
Главная тема - Анализируем заседание #ФРС. Лучшая неделя!!
▪️Отработка шорта по #EUR и #NZD
▪️ #Золото vs #Серебро
▪️ Спред #CAD/#JPY, когда выходить?
🗣 Ведущий Александр Янюк
Связь @tvtsupport
Главная тема - Анализируем заседание #ФРС. Лучшая неделя!!
▪️Отработка шорта по #EUR и #NZD
▪️ #Золото vs #Серебро
▪️ Спред #CAD/#JPY, когда выходить?
🗣 Ведущий Александр Янюк
Связь @tvtsupport
Hello TVT Traders!
Let's speak about Key changes in COT positions and price changes that happened
previous week.
🔸 We took our attention to the Japanese Yen (6J), and we saw the strong pullback from the downtrend this week as we expected. But I have not got any signal to enter this position on the lower TF. It could happen on the bottom, after a big HFT volumes breakdown, but unfortunately not. Nevertheless we saw how informative put options trades can be for us to organize our decision making. Now the price makes retest of commercial level 0.00815 and then, I hope, will go to the area 0,0084 - next commercial level, where funds opened a big short (See)
#6J #JPY #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Look at Coffee futures (KC)! Great longing opportunity was after stopping HFT volumes were created in our planned direction. Stops with involvement - that is what I like most of all! How we expected, it was a healthy effort to return to the uprising channel. (See)
#KC #coffee #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 I am very happy that such a timely decision was to cancel buy priority on Gold (GC). As you observed, It made a very strong and very fast pullback this week! I was even able to get profit on the second falling wave. Now analyzing tick data we see strong buying cumulative deltas and stop hunting on the bottom. So we can expect an upper direction in this asset. But funds and hedgers were rather quite according to COT changings. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 On Mexican peso (6M) I made short by the end of the previous week. And hope it will go to commercial level 0,04870. (See) Due to CDQ rising it can make a new top, that's why I put stop higher than volume level June 21. Hope it must cool down after such a strong uptrend.
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Despite everybody saw a trend continuation in the Canadian dollar (6C), we - TVT Traders - saw, with the help of liquidity flow analysis, that prices will stop heating. CallBlocks on extremums and a very big amount of divergence between CD and CDQ made their job for us as swing traders. And I think this dynamic will continue this week. (See)
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 In Natural gas (NG) blocktrades did their job and we saw predictable correction. But of course, as traders, we have to be more reactive and not predictive. And there was a great opportunity in gas not only to close shorts, if they were opened, but also to open buys after such a smart involvement, by the end of tuesday, with HFT volumes and visible divergence of QD and CDQ. That week funds closed huge amounts of shorts and hedgers longs, now I think we will see a ranging trend in this asset. (See)
#NG #Naturalgas #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 With 10-yr treasuries (ZN) I hope for continuation of growth, and bid HFT volumes inform us accurately about it. (See)
#ZN #treasuries #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
Mexican peso (6M) - sell
10-yr treasuries (ZN) - buy
Canadian dollar (6C) - sell
Coffee (KC) - buy
Natural gas (NG) - sell
Japanese Yen (6J) - buy
Other assets without particular direction, decisions according to liquidity flow imbalances.
Thank you for being with us! Glory to Ukraine and its heroes!
Legend:
CD - cumulative delta
CDQ - cumulative delta which counts the amount of aggregated ticks (trades)
OI - open interest
CallBlocks/PutBlocks - large transactions that take place outside the order book
CL - commercial level - zone of the huge changings in positions according to the COT report.
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
Let's speak about Key changes in COT positions and price changes that happened
previous week.
🔸 We took our attention to the Japanese Yen (6J), and we saw the strong pullback from the downtrend this week as we expected. But I have not got any signal to enter this position on the lower TF. It could happen on the bottom, after a big HFT volumes breakdown, but unfortunately not. Nevertheless we saw how informative put options trades can be for us to organize our decision making. Now the price makes retest of commercial level 0.00815 and then, I hope, will go to the area 0,0084 - next commercial level, where funds opened a big short (See)
#6J #JPY #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Look at Coffee futures (KC)! Great longing opportunity was after stopping HFT volumes were created in our planned direction. Stops with involvement - that is what I like most of all! How we expected, it was a healthy effort to return to the uprising channel. (See)
#KC #coffee #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 I am very happy that such a timely decision was to cancel buy priority on Gold (GC). As you observed, It made a very strong and very fast pullback this week! I was even able to get profit on the second falling wave. Now analyzing tick data we see strong buying cumulative deltas and stop hunting on the bottom. So we can expect an upper direction in this asset. But funds and hedgers were rather quite according to COT changings. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 On Mexican peso (6M) I made short by the end of the previous week. And hope it will go to commercial level 0,04870. (See) Due to CDQ rising it can make a new top, that's why I put stop higher than volume level June 21. Hope it must cool down after such a strong uptrend.
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Despite everybody saw a trend continuation in the Canadian dollar (6C), we - TVT Traders - saw, with the help of liquidity flow analysis, that prices will stop heating. CallBlocks on extremums and a very big amount of divergence between CD and CDQ made their job for us as swing traders. And I think this dynamic will continue this week. (See)
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 In Natural gas (NG) blocktrades did their job and we saw predictable correction. But of course, as traders, we have to be more reactive and not predictive. And there was a great opportunity in gas not only to close shorts, if they were opened, but also to open buys after such a smart involvement, by the end of tuesday, with HFT volumes and visible divergence of QD and CDQ. That week funds closed huge amounts of shorts and hedgers longs, now I think we will see a ranging trend in this asset. (See)
#NG #Naturalgas #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 With 10-yr treasuries (ZN) I hope for continuation of growth, and bid HFT volumes inform us accurately about it. (See)
#ZN #treasuries #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
Mexican peso (6M) - sell
10-yr treasuries (ZN) - buy
Canadian dollar (6C) - sell
Coffee (KC) - buy
Natural gas (NG) - sell
Japanese Yen (6J) - buy
Other assets without particular direction, decisions according to liquidity flow imbalances.
Thank you for being with us! Glory to Ukraine and its heroes!
Legend:
CD - cumulative delta
CDQ - cumulative delta which counts the amount of aggregated ticks (trades)
OI - open interest
CallBlocks/PutBlocks - large transactions that take place outside the order book
CL - commercial level - zone of the huge changings in positions according to the COT report.
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
Hello TVT Traders!
As you are already used to, we will analyze what interesting had happened during the previous week. Also, as always, we make predictions and put priorities based on the tick data and key changes in #COT positions.
🔸 On Friday evening we saw a perfect buying signal on US Treasury Bonds (ZB). A couple of divergences between CD and CDQ + HFT Volumes on the bottom. The first target is the previous red HFT and then we will see how healthy buyers will be there. I want to remind you, that hedge funds opened a big long position in ZB, that's why I am also are interested to play this game (See)
#ZB #treasures #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Japanese Yen (6J), it seems to me that this week we will see the same as in treasures - breakout the downtrend and move to commercial level 0,008150. Hope that we came to the lower boundary of the future range and now are ready to go to the upper one. Previous changes in COT data are minimal and do not influence the picture. (See)
#6J #JPY #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Mexican peso (6M) really made a new top and it's good for me, that I thought of putting a stop loss above the volume levels Sep 21 and Jun 21. I believe that it is a temporary correction and the price will go further downside to commercial level 0,00487 and lower. (See)
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Gold (GC) as we discussed, made several pullbacks from the lower boundary of the channel, and this attempt looks stronger than the previous one. My opinion is that gold will proceed to move higher during the next week. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 The Canadian dollar (6C) - of course, it was not without shakeout, but the idea was absolutely right. During the week we overviewed serious seizing of the initiative by sellers.
As I wrote before “CallBlocks on extremums and a very big amount of divergence between CD and CDQ made their job for us as swing traders. And I think this dynamic will continue this week.” (See)
🔸 Now the price of the Canadian dollar is on technical support and I believe after small correction will be the next downside wave. We saw how on Friday evening traders were enforced to close their hedge because of the expiration of the options contract, that's why the market can involve hedgers in the new contract before going up.
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
As you see sometimes the price after my report can make inertial movement in a priority direction. But as Jessie Livermore said: the most important thing is the skill to define the turnaround point and then it's a matter of techniques.
🔸 For example ase I wrote 2 weeks ago about S&P 500 “Previous week we saw a strong fall of VIX (fear index) with a breaking uptrend. Be careful, I think that soon we will see falling in the broad market index!!! Hedge funds dramatically increased shorts. I put sell priority on S&P 500 (ES) for the next week (See) ” In fact we saw the correction a bit later (See)
#ES #S&P500 #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Together with the rest, we can observe some pullback in the Australian dollar (6A), hedge funds are quite bullish here (See)
#6A #AUD #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
US treasuries (ZB) - buy
Japanese Yen (6J) - buy
Gold (GC) - hold purchases
Mexican peso (6M) - keep sales
Australian dollar (6A) - buy
Trade the plan and plan the trade, and do not accept this information as financial, investment, trading or other advice or recommendation. Be very attentive to your decisions and make them by yourself!
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
As you are already used to, we will analyze what interesting had happened during the previous week. Also, as always, we make predictions and put priorities based on the tick data and key changes in #COT positions.
🔸 On Friday evening we saw a perfect buying signal on US Treasury Bonds (ZB). A couple of divergences between CD and CDQ + HFT Volumes on the bottom. The first target is the previous red HFT and then we will see how healthy buyers will be there. I want to remind you, that hedge funds opened a big long position in ZB, that's why I am also are interested to play this game (See)
#ZB #treasures #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Japanese Yen (6J), it seems to me that this week we will see the same as in treasures - breakout the downtrend and move to commercial level 0,008150. Hope that we came to the lower boundary of the future range and now are ready to go to the upper one. Previous changes in COT data are minimal and do not influence the picture. (See)
#6J #JPY #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Mexican peso (6M) really made a new top and it's good for me, that I thought of putting a stop loss above the volume levels Sep 21 and Jun 21. I believe that it is a temporary correction and the price will go further downside to commercial level 0,00487 and lower. (See)
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Gold (GC) as we discussed, made several pullbacks from the lower boundary of the channel, and this attempt looks stronger than the previous one. My opinion is that gold will proceed to move higher during the next week. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 The Canadian dollar (6C) - of course, it was not without shakeout, but the idea was absolutely right. During the week we overviewed serious seizing of the initiative by sellers.
As I wrote before “CallBlocks on extremums and a very big amount of divergence between CD and CDQ made their job for us as swing traders. And I think this dynamic will continue this week.” (See)
🔸 Now the price of the Canadian dollar is on technical support and I believe after small correction will be the next downside wave. We saw how on Friday evening traders were enforced to close their hedge because of the expiration of the options contract, that's why the market can involve hedgers in the new contract before going up.
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
As you see sometimes the price after my report can make inertial movement in a priority direction. But as Jessie Livermore said: the most important thing is the skill to define the turnaround point and then it's a matter of techniques.
🔸 For example ase I wrote 2 weeks ago about S&P 500 “Previous week we saw a strong fall of VIX (fear index) with a breaking uptrend. Be careful, I think that soon we will see falling in the broad market index!!! Hedge funds dramatically increased shorts. I put sell priority on S&P 500 (ES) for the next week (See) ” In fact we saw the correction a bit later (See)
#ES #S&P500 #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔸 Together with the rest, we can observe some pullback in the Australian dollar (6A), hedge funds are quite bullish here (See)
#6A #AUD #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
US treasuries (ZB) - buy
Japanese Yen (6J) - buy
Gold (GC) - hold purchases
Mexican peso (6M) - keep sales
Australian dollar (6A) - buy
Trade the plan and plan the trade, and do not accept this information as financial, investment, trading or other advice or recommendation. Be very attentive to your decisions and make them by yourself!
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
Hello TVT Traders!
It was a volatile but not so good week, eventually for me. My expectations about US Treasury Bonds, the Australian dollar have not been realized and the Japanese Yen made a hard rock falling, without any correction, because of the very dovish monetary policy of the central bank compared with FED.
🔺 But still, Ultra US Treasury Bonds (UB) can show us buying opportunities on this level (See)
It was my plan and I traded it, of course, the most important thing is to manage your risk, not to be suffered very much because of unexpected movements.
🔺 Even the Mexican peso (6M) returned to breakeven. Of course, I expect a further continuation, but it is not the proper picture. (See)
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 As you remember, I made a bullish forecast on Gold (GC), and it is really realized. But tomorrow we saw the block trades in call options the price stopped on the commercial level. Without doughts, for me, it is a sell priority. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 Silver (SI) also has potential for short after Call buying orders activation by market orders and also by block trades. (See)
#SI #Silver #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 The Canadian dollar (6C) proceeded to fall that week and I expect will continue this week. Funds increased their positions, but if fact I appreciate looking and following for hedgers' efforts in range (especially on the borders) and for funds intentions in trend, I think you understand why… (See)
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 For now, I see the local buying opportunity in Sugar (SB) contracts. I plan to trade this involvement to the upper boundary of the current flat movement. (See)
#SB #Sugar #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
US treasuries (UB) - buy
Gold (GC) - sell
Silver (SI) - sell
Mexican peso (6M) - keep sales
Sugar (SB) - intraday buy
Canadian dollar (6C) - sell
Do not accept this information as financial, investment, trading, or other advice or recommendation. Manage your risk and be very attentive to your decisions and make them by yourself!
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
It was a volatile but not so good week, eventually for me. My expectations about US Treasury Bonds, the Australian dollar have not been realized and the Japanese Yen made a hard rock falling, without any correction, because of the very dovish monetary policy of the central bank compared with FED.
🔺 But still, Ultra US Treasury Bonds (UB) can show us buying opportunities on this level (See)
It was my plan and I traded it, of course, the most important thing is to manage your risk, not to be suffered very much because of unexpected movements.
🔺 Even the Mexican peso (6M) returned to breakeven. Of course, I expect a further continuation, but it is not the proper picture. (See)
#6M #MXP #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 As you remember, I made a bullish forecast on Gold (GC), and it is really realized. But tomorrow we saw the block trades in call options the price stopped on the commercial level. Without doughts, for me, it is a sell priority. (See)
#GC #Gold #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 Silver (SI) also has potential for short after Call buying orders activation by market orders and also by block trades. (See)
#SI #Silver #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 The Canadian dollar (6C) proceeded to fall that week and I expect will continue this week. Funds increased their positions, but if fact I appreciate looking and following for hedgers' efforts in range (especially on the borders) and for funds intentions in trend, I think you understand why… (See)
#6C #CAD #CFTCdata #tickdata
🔺 For now, I see the local buying opportunity in Sugar (SB) contracts. I plan to trade this involvement to the upper boundary of the current flat movement. (See)
#SB #Sugar #CFTCdata #tickdata
As a result:
US treasuries (UB) - buy
Gold (GC) - sell
Silver (SI) - sell
Mexican peso (6M) - keep sales
Sugar (SB) - intraday buy
Canadian dollar (6C) - sell
Do not accept this information as financial, investment, trading, or other advice or recommendation. Manage your risk and be very attentive to your decisions and make them by yourself!
(Previously published in TVT School)
Sincerely, Taras Sviatun
Team Trading Volume Terminal
