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Situation in Syria as of March 2024:🇸🇾
During the last few weeks the SAA has increased attacks in the Idlib and Aleppo region against rebel and terrorist groups' positions. Important the intensive use of suicide drones that have claimed the lives of many militants. Attacks are expected to increase progressively thanks to the arrival of new drones and the start of a domestic production of these.
It is these weapons that will also represent a change in the combing operations in the desert against ISIS terrorists, although this will take more time. In the meantime, such operations will continue to have very limited results, restricting fully effective control along roads and checkpoints in the region, while the depths of the desert will remain the terrorists' lair and launching point for their raids.
Lately, threats of an open confrontation with Russia have begun to flourish among European leaders, who warn that it will soon be necessary to prepare for war.
Honestly, the time for such a scenario is a long way off. Russia has no intention of advancing in a field other than the Ukrainian one. The entry of Finland and Sweden has stopped any attempt to expand its influence in this region, leaving only Belarus as an ally.
A war against Russia would be highly unpopular and highly costly, considering the economic problems and productive shortcomings of the European states to carry out considerable rearmament, conscription tasks and a war economy.
On the other hand, there is the nuclear threat. This option is not contemplated either, nuclear weapons will continue to be the deterrent weapon that will prevent a global conflict.
Despite all this. It is inevitable to think about the possibility of a war in the future. The decision is in the hands of political leaders and not of individuals. In case they want to convince the people, the excuse of "defense of democracy and European values" will not be enough. Avoiding a major conflict should be the goal of all leaders. Hence, diplomacy should be the main procedure to achieve peace in conflicts. However, and frankly, diplomacy is far from being the protagonist in the Ukrainian conflict.
Jihadist groups (ISIS) are confirmed as the perpetrators of yesterday's attack in Moscow. After the arrests carried out in the last hours it is possible that we will soon see new anti-terrorist operations in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, the thesis of Ukrainian authorship seems to have caught on and the Russian government will take advantage of this situation to increase popular support in the war with Ukraine.
The capture of Ivanivske is a turning point on the front south and west of Bakhmut. Remember that the Ukrainian offensive last summer succeeded in recapturing a large part of the positions east of the canal, including the high ground between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, which allowed the recapture of Klishchiivka, Andriivka and the railroad, which served as a natural border until autumn, when after heavy Ukrainian attrition Russian forces seized the initiative, recapturing several areas west of the railroad and resuming the advance west of Ivanivske. While on the latter axis the Russian army has been remarkably successful in the south, it has been unable to recapture the lost canal area, suffering heavy losses at the cost of small gains. The reason for this lies in the earlier loss of the high ground, which allows Ukrainian troops to have an advantage in monitoring Russian troops in the area, being able to repel attacks effectively and thanks to the extensive use of drones (consequently the Russians have also significantly increased the number of operational drones here).
The capture of Ivanivske meant the possibility of taking the high ground and the trench systems present there (1) while the capture of Mount Baba would allow Russian forces to reach the canal on that axis (2). After the loss of the heights, the Ukrainian army would be forced to withdraw from Klishchiivka and the rest of the eastern bank of the canal (3). As a result, the canal would become a new natural barrier reinforced by trenches on its western bank. Depending on the development of the axis north of Bakhmut (Bohdanivka-Kalinina-Hryhorivka) the Russian army will eventually cross the canal to Stupochky, from where it will begin to assault Chasiv Yar from the south as it approaches the outskirts of Kostiantynivka. While Russian forces could accomplish the former during the spring, the latter is still many months away.
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Armenian troops begin to send reinforcements towards the Azerbaijani border in preparation for a possible future attack by Azerbaijan. Azeri threats have not been met politically and it is possible that the Azeri army will try to take the disputed localities by force. Armenia's situation is not good, increasingly isolated and with a policy of distancing itself from the Russian orbit. Its army is not sufficiently capable of dealing with Azerbaijani forces heavily armed by Turkey. We are no longer talking about Karabakh, which was not internationally recognised as Armenian territory, but about a more defined border, where Azeri claims would not necessarily coincide with the territory seized. At the moment approximately 107 square kilometres of Armenian land is occupied by Azerbaijan.
Time will tell whether we will see a new war in the Caucasus. It is important to note that the claims began at the end of last year. Diplomacy is slow and diffuse.🇦🇲🇦🇿
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 770:
Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last three days Russian Army has increased the pressure over Ukrainian Army deployed in Novomykhailivka following the advance from the north, were new forest belt was taken; and from the south, where troops took full control over the trench system. It is important to note that the advances are taking place along two heights whose capture will cause the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the locality and seriously endanger the supply route to Ugledar from the south of Kostyantynivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.86194063220082%2C37.474767825499754&z=14 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 774:
Situation east of Chasov Yar: Russian Army took control over 85% of Bohdanivka after Ukrainian Army were forces to retreat from most of the locality following Russian attacks from north and southeast (forest). Only some houses in the south and the warehouses (fortified area) remains under Ukrainian control.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.6013082664395%2C37.90482353951961&z=13 ]
Predictably, the axis of resistance has also launched simultaneous attacks on Israel from Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The aim is to maximize the chances of success of the Iranian attack, which will probably use ballistic missiles 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇮🇶🇱🇧🇸🇾