With the recapture of Urozhaine/Урожайне the 3rd phase of Ukrainian counteroffensive is about to begin. There is a significant amount of material and human resources of Ukrainian Army deployed in the southern fronts, where it's expected that troops will launch a powerful wave of attacks which have probably the next objectives:
1. Taking the high areas west and east of Mokri Yali river thus reaching Kermenchyk-Staromlynivka, the last defense line before the 1st Russian main defense line.
2. Taking control over the town of Robotyne/Роботине and develop the offensive further south until the 1st Russian main defense line, it's also expected Ukrainian forces will open another axis around Novopokrovka/Новопокровка as many reinforcements came to that area in the last days.
Once Ukrainian Army reaches these objectives it would be possible to exploit the momentum and reach one of the big towns located at the 2nd Russian main line of defense.
1. Taking the high areas west and east of Mokri Yali river thus reaching Kermenchyk-Staromlynivka, the last defense line before the 1st Russian main defense line.
2. Taking control over the town of Robotyne/Роботине and develop the offensive further south until the 1st Russian main defense line, it's also expected Ukrainian forces will open another axis around Novopokrovka/Новопокровка as many reinforcements came to that area in the last days.
Once Ukrainian Army reaches these objectives it would be possible to exploit the momentum and reach one of the big towns located at the 2nd Russian main line of defense.
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 552:
Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last hours Russian Army continued retreating towards the first main defense line as Ukrainian Army not only increased the probing attacks but also managed to set a foothold behind the line, which means the line suffered the first breach.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.432539385005924%2C35.88444464768618&z=13 ]
Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last hours Russian Army continued retreating towards the first main defense line as Ukrainian Army not only increased the probing attacks but also managed to set a foothold behind the line, which means the line suffered the first breach.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.432539385005924%2C35.88444464768618&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 561:
Situation north of Donetsk: During the last days Ukrainian Army advanced south and recaptured a series of positions adjacent to the town of Opytne/Опитне.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.095701327758306%2C37.72429597438433&z=14 ]
Situation north of Donetsk: During the last days Ukrainian Army advanced south and recaptured a series of positions adjacent to the town of Opytne/Опитне.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.095701327758306%2C37.72429597438433&z=14 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 561:
Situation west of Donetsk: During this week Russian Army managed to advance again in the town of Marinka/Мар'їнка along the streets of Naberezhna, Kashtanova, Shakhtarska and Polihrafichna. Clashes have reached the lake area, but it's not confirmed that Russian forces have consolidate its positions around it. As it was mentioned some days ago, there is a big grey area between both sides in which Ukrainian Army only controls now 20% of the town.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.943449594420066%2C37.50956046151696&z=14 ]
Situation west of Donetsk: During this week Russian Army managed to advance again in the town of Marinka/Мар'їнка along the streets of Naberezhna, Kashtanova, Shakhtarska and Polihrafichna. Clashes have reached the lake area, but it's not confirmed that Russian forces have consolidate its positions around it. As it was mentioned some days ago, there is a big grey area between both sides in which Ukrainian Army only controls now 20% of the town.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.943449594420066%2C37.50956046151696&z=14 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 563:
Situation on Zaporizhia front: While Ukrainian Army continue the advances south and eastwards Robotyne/Роботине Russian Army launched a counterattack and managed to recapture a series of positions north of Verbove/Вербове.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.4542252164558%2C35.88419856185119&z=13 ]
Situation on Zaporizhia front: While Ukrainian Army continue the advances south and eastwards Robotyne/Роботине Russian Army launched a counterattack and managed to recapture a series of positions north of Verbove/Вербове.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.4542252164558%2C35.88419856185119&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 570:
Sitution south of Bakhmut: New video footage shows Ukrainian forces announcing the full control over the town of Klishchiivka/Кліщіївка after almost three months of hard combats (place of video: 48.527496, 37.958355). In addition, some corrections were made some kilometers south showing that Ukrainian Army is closer to the town of Kurdyumivka/Курдюмівка (credit to @SyriaWar2), probably the next target of this counteroffensive.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.50411005043304%2C37.95515640016391&z=13 ]
Sitution south of Bakhmut: New video footage shows Ukrainian forces announcing the full control over the town of Klishchiivka/Кліщіївка after almost three months of hard combats (place of video: 48.527496, 37.958355). In addition, some corrections were made some kilometers south showing that Ukrainian Army is closer to the town of Kurdyumivka/Курдюмівка (credit to @SyriaWar2), probably the next target of this counteroffensive.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.50411005043304%2C37.95515640016391&z=13 ]
What we are seeing in the Caucasus it's a kind of "deja vu" of what happened in Ukraine months before the invasion began. Sadly another war will take place there... 🇦🇲🇦🇿
❗️⚡️ Official: statement of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry on the start of a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh
"Over the past few months, the units of the Armenian armed forces in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan have systematically shelled the positions of the Azerbaijani army with weapons of various calibers, continued mining our territories, engineering improvement of combat positions, and also increased combat power.
In this regard, the strengthening of combat positions by personnel, armored vehicles, artillery installations and other fire means was carried out, bringing units to a high level of combat readiness, creating additional units for mobilization, expanding intelligence activities against units of the Azerbaijani Army.
Our means of observation recorded such actions as repeated mining of roads for the purpose of terrorist provocation.
On September 19, as a result of the explosion of a mine pre-installed for terrorist purposes on the Akhmedbeyli-Fuzuli-Shusha highway by Armenian reconnaissance and sabotage groups operating in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, a car belonging to the State Agency of Highways of Azerbaijan was damaged and civilians were killed. On the same day, as a result of an explosion on a mine laid by reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Armenian Armed Forces, our servicemen were killed and injured. Such facts are a continuation of Armenia's purposeful and planned terrorist policy against Azerbaijan.
The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that, contrary to the provisions of the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020, the continued presence of the Armenian armed forces in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan poses a serious threat to regional peace and stability.
It is necessary to ensure the provision of the trilateral declaration, the prevention of large-scale provocations committed in the Karabakh economic region, the disarmament and withdrawal of units of the Armenian armed forces from our territories, the neutralization of their military infrastructure, ensuring the safety of the civilian population returning to the liberated territories, as well as civil servants and military personnel involved in restoration and reconstruction work.
Local anti-terrorist measures have been launched in the region in order to ensure and restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
As part of the measures with the use of precision weapons, advanced and deep positions and long-term firing points, as well as combat vehicles and military facilities of the Armenian Armed Forces are being put out of action.
We emphasize once again that civilians and infrastructure facilities are not being attacked, but only legitimate military facilities.
The command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the leadership of the Joint Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center have been informed about the measures taken."
"Over the past few months, the units of the Armenian armed forces in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan have systematically shelled the positions of the Azerbaijani army with weapons of various calibers, continued mining our territories, engineering improvement of combat positions, and also increased combat power.
In this regard, the strengthening of combat positions by personnel, armored vehicles, artillery installations and other fire means was carried out, bringing units to a high level of combat readiness, creating additional units for mobilization, expanding intelligence activities against units of the Azerbaijani Army.
Our means of observation recorded such actions as repeated mining of roads for the purpose of terrorist provocation.
On September 19, as a result of the explosion of a mine pre-installed for terrorist purposes on the Akhmedbeyli-Fuzuli-Shusha highway by Armenian reconnaissance and sabotage groups operating in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, a car belonging to the State Agency of Highways of Azerbaijan was damaged and civilians were killed. On the same day, as a result of an explosion on a mine laid by reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Armenian Armed Forces, our servicemen were killed and injured. Such facts are a continuation of Armenia's purposeful and planned terrorist policy against Azerbaijan.
The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that, contrary to the provisions of the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020, the continued presence of the Armenian armed forces in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan poses a serious threat to regional peace and stability.
It is necessary to ensure the provision of the trilateral declaration, the prevention of large-scale provocations committed in the Karabakh economic region, the disarmament and withdrawal of units of the Armenian armed forces from our territories, the neutralization of their military infrastructure, ensuring the safety of the civilian population returning to the liberated territories, as well as civil servants and military personnel involved in restoration and reconstruction work.
Local anti-terrorist measures have been launched in the region in order to ensure and restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
As part of the measures with the use of precision weapons, advanced and deep positions and long-term firing points, as well as combat vehicles and military facilities of the Armenian Armed Forces are being put out of action.
We emphasize once again that civilians and infrastructure facilities are not being attacked, but only legitimate military facilities.
The command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the leadership of the Joint Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center have been informed about the measures taken."
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the start of a military operation in Karabakh region. A new war is about to start 🇦🇲🇦🇿
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=es&mid=19gp0qYIkynvVfj_cmKMJUuUVDtm7m5k&ll=39.984428496255546%2C46.880453079207314&z=7 ]
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=es&mid=19gp0qYIkynvVfj_cmKMJUuUVDtm7m5k&ll=39.984428496255546%2C46.880453079207314&z=7 ]
Some have asked why the Karabakh war is still being talked about if it lasted only one day. It is true that after one day of fighting there was a ceasefire and negotiations. However, during the following hours this ceasefire was violated several times and further deaths of soldiers on both sides occurred, so it is not incorrect to say that the war is over.
Currently the Azeri army is entering Karabakh localities without resistance after the Artsakh defence forces withdrew from these positions.
This is the fate of the majority of the Armenian population of Karabakh, who will be heading towards Armenia in the coming weeks.
This is a new demographic shift, in which a territory will lose its oldest inhabitants.
It is sad to witness such developments once again and in such a short time (remember that such demographic changes are also taking place in Ukraine). Extreme nationalism encourages the homogenisation of the population for greater stability, but this leads to the loss of the cultural diversity with which states are formed. It cannot be denied that Azerbaijan does not have the right to recover a territory that is internationally recognised as its own (the result of a bad design of the borders of the Soviet space which, like Ukraine, generated these conflicts after the dissolution of the USSR). But neither can it be denied that this land has not belonged to the Armenian population for centuries. Conflict between the two peoples seems to be inevitable, as contemporary history has shown us, and only force of arms seems to be the only tool that can tip the balance to one side or the other.
The conflict will continue after Karabakh and this time it will be on official Armenian soil, yet another stage in the cyclical tension that the Caucasus and its inhabitants are traditionally familiar with.
Currently the Azeri army is entering Karabakh localities without resistance after the Artsakh defence forces withdrew from these positions.
This is the fate of the majority of the Armenian population of Karabakh, who will be heading towards Armenia in the coming weeks.
This is a new demographic shift, in which a territory will lose its oldest inhabitants.
It is sad to witness such developments once again and in such a short time (remember that such demographic changes are also taking place in Ukraine). Extreme nationalism encourages the homogenisation of the population for greater stability, but this leads to the loss of the cultural diversity with which states are formed. It cannot be denied that Azerbaijan does not have the right to recover a territory that is internationally recognised as its own (the result of a bad design of the borders of the Soviet space which, like Ukraine, generated these conflicts after the dissolution of the USSR). But neither can it be denied that this land has not belonged to the Armenian population for centuries. Conflict between the two peoples seems to be inevitable, as contemporary history has shown us, and only force of arms seems to be the only tool that can tip the balance to one side or the other.
The conflict will continue after Karabakh and this time it will be on official Armenian soil, yet another stage in the cyclical tension that the Caucasus and its inhabitants are traditionally familiar with.
- Syrian Civil War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1liqnO9iSvshTLwgPB3q9sJTgfUI&ll=35.469181546382984%2C38.662876102789596&z=8 ]
- Iraq Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1EXnjz0SpWMkoWtYnE_8h3BGmAiITbuLy&ll=34.51645819869277%2C44.11292325826058&z=7 ]
- Yemen Civil War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1k_5mC2oHM9Lj4I5irFA0pkXbqKQ&ll=15.386450982788514%2C48.29780293861165&z=7 ]
- Libyan Civil War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1IQES33xfW4-aFLXRlpQHQggX81CS6qcC&ll=27.209667597152826%2C18.207409462578134&z=6 ]
- Russian-Ukrainian War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.94437604727767%2C35.18634928482012&z=6 ]
- Caucasus: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=es&mid=19gp0qYIkynvVfj_cmKMJUuUVDtm7m5k&ll=39.984428496255546%2C46.880453079207314&z=7 ]
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- Iraq Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1EXnjz0SpWMkoWtYnE_8h3BGmAiITbuLy&ll=34.51645819869277%2C44.11292325826058&z=7 ]
- Yemen Civil War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1k_5mC2oHM9Lj4I5irFA0pkXbqKQ&ll=15.386450982788514%2C48.29780293861165&z=7 ]
- Libyan Civil War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1IQES33xfW4-aFLXRlpQHQggX81CS6qcC&ll=27.209667597152826%2C18.207409462578134&z=6 ]
- Russian-Ukrainian War Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.94437604727767%2C35.18634928482012&z=6 ]
- Caucasus: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=es&mid=19gp0qYIkynvVfj_cmKMJUuUVDtm7m5k&ll=39.984428496255546%2C46.880453079207314&z=7 ]
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Syria-Irak: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1liqnO9iSvshTLwgPB3q9sJTgfUI&ll=34.698059967918276%2C36.800262605602825&z=6
Libya-Yemen: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?hl=es&mid=1GP3bn4xtm3p2QkVCb83QU_s5LjU&ll=15.637009817224122%2C45.614475223883346&z=5…
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Airborne troops along with a former Wagner assault force entered the village of Veseloye, located north of Soledar. An intense and tough battle is underway. Artillery and drones of all kinds work successfully. Ours are making progress.
There are also further successes in Orekhovo-Vasilievka where former Wagner fighters fight together with VDV units. They advance further into the village. The fighting is slowly but surely approaching the western part of the settlement.
There are also further successes in Orekhovo-Vasilievka where former Wagner fighters fight together with VDV units. They advance further into the village. The fighting is slowly but surely approaching the western part of the settlement.
The move by the United Kingdom, a NATO member country, to send troops to Ukraine represents a new challenge to the existing tension in the international framework between Russia and the West. While it is true that military troops from Western countries were unofficially in this country, now we have a country that will officially send troops. The Russian response will most likely be to attack any convoy of these soldiers, alluding to the illegality of the entry of a NATO army into a neutral state or one that does not belong to any military bloc. If these decisions are repeated with other NATO countries it will confirm that the conflict is sadly heading for a new stage of escalation.
During the last few months a lot of data has appeared regarding the total number of casualties in the Ukrainian conflict on both sides. It is better to be cautious in believing these numbers, some of them quite overestimated and oscillating, as it will be very difficult to get a reliable number until the war is not over. It is also important to note that some data includes both fatal and non-fatal casualties making the numbers quite high. One should even be reluctant to believe the numbers provided by the Ministries of Defense as well as those alleged NATO documents that appeared several months ago.
Being conservative and cautious what can be affirmed is that the conflict has already claimed more than one hundred thousand deaths making it one of the deadliest conflicts in the world in the 21st century and the largest in Europe since the Yugoslav wars. Moreover, it is interesting to see how this conflict is looking more and more like a war of attrition similar to the great war in which a great amount of resources are consumed in an attempt to make small advances on a broad front of approximately 950 kilometers in length. But it is also interesting to note the balance of forces that is gradually being achieved between the Ukrainian forces (losing more troops in proportion to their counterpart) and the Russians (arrival of mobilized forces, mercenaries and recruits). if this trend continues, we may be approaching a turning point in the conflict that will be reflected in the events of the year 2024. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Being conservative and cautious what can be affirmed is that the conflict has already claimed more than one hundred thousand deaths making it one of the deadliest conflicts in the world in the 21st century and the largest in Europe since the Yugoslav wars. Moreover, it is interesting to see how this conflict is looking more and more like a war of attrition similar to the great war in which a great amount of resources are consumed in an attempt to make small advances on a broad front of approximately 950 kilometers in length. But it is also interesting to note the balance of forces that is gradually being achieved between the Ukrainian forces (losing more troops in proportion to their counterpart) and the Russians (arrival of mobilized forces, mercenaries and recruits). if this trend continues, we may be approaching a turning point in the conflict that will be reflected in the events of the year 2024. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Russian Army restarted offensive operations on northeastern front (another attempt to capture Syn'kivka/Синьківка concretely)
Russian Army launched new attack north of Soledar and it's advancing northwest of Berestove/Берест.